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Today we are talking about how investors are handling this recession. Like agents, they have to adapt to survive this market, and with the right strategy, thrive.
Martin is the founder and host of the Stroudsburg Real Estate Investors club. With his leadership the group has gone from zero to over three hundred members in less than two years. He currently manages and operates a Real Estate Investing firm operating over five million dollars in assets and he helps investors get above average returns by investing passively in multifamily Real Estate with him and his team.
Three Things You’ll Learn in This Episode
- How do you make sure everyone knows your name?
- How are top agents thriving during a recession?
- Why you need to be making content and developing a brand.
Resource
The Listing Advocate (Earn more listings!)
Transcripts:
So how do you track new business, you constantly don’t have to chase it. Hi, I’m Mike Cuevas to real estate marketing. And this podcast is all about building a strong personal brand people have come to know, like trust and most importantly, refer. But remember, it is not their job to remember what you do for a living. It’s your job to remind them. Let’s get started.
What’s up ladies and gentlemen, welcome another episode of the real estate marketing dude, podcast, folks, where we chat about today is how you diversify. When the market stops transacting by 33%. What are you gonna do during this recession, this is gonna be the best opportunity that most of us will see to actually start building wealth and you don’t make a lot of money when everyone else is buying houses, you make a lot of money when no one else is, because that’s where the opportunity is. And if you’re not adopting the mindset of becoming a real estate problem solver, right now, people are going to be eating your lunch. So what I wanted to do today was bring on a investor, not any investor, Latino investor. That’s why we got on the show here, because we support our Latinos on this show. But what we’re going to talk about guys is sort of how to start thinking outside the box, here’s the reality, right? You’re gonna, there’s gonna be a lot of opportunities. And when the market shifts like there’s, there’s gonna be recession, people are going to be losing their houses, their jobs, and other things. And they’re going to need help. And this is why every real estate investor in the country is self attaining on the sidelines right now. They’re not getting in yet, but they’re just sitting there. They’re putting on their helmet. They’re strapping on their chin strap, and they’re putting in their mouthpiece, because they’re about to go to freakin feast. And that’s why these markets are so exciting. And real estate agents, lenders, you guys are in the best position to take advantage of this different stuff. So we’re gonna get into that a little bit further right now. But without further ado, let’s go ahead and introduce our guest, Mr. Martin. Perdomo. A Superdome. All right. That’s correct. Port demo. All right, Martin, why don’t you go ahead and tell everyone Hello, and tell him a little bit about yourself. Hey, everyone. Thanks. Thanks for having me, Mike.
Really appreciate it’s an honor to be here on your show and talking to your audience. I’ve been investing in real estate since 2007. Man I first fell in love with real estate. When I was 1616. I grew up in New York City, born and raised in Washington Heights, and those of you that are familiar with New York, that’s the hood man, it’s rough in the 80s and 90s. And at 16th on my 16th on my 16th birthday. My mom kicked me out for the ninth time she said it says she got home she kicked me out. And I quickly realized my sleeping in trained and and rooftops and and parks in New York City. And then the beaches in Far Rockaway Beach, that human beings needed something really important that shelter and food, right. And that’s when I first fell in love with real estate, I made a decision unconsciously that I was going to own a lot of real estate, so I never have to go through that pain again. And that’s what I’ve done. So that was, you know, that was my debt. When I made that decision. I bought my first investment I bought my first real estate piece of real estate when I was 21.
And I bought my first prop my first investment in 2007. So I was a mortgage broker. And you know, I was the guy giving people those all those bad loans. subprime loans. I was countrywide days baby. Right. I remember that remember countrywide and all those never, never before in the history of real estate has a college graduate at 21 years old had the ability to make 750 to a million dollars a year just right out of college at their first entry level job. That’s the type of market it was for those you guys that weren’t around back then. It was crazy man. It was we were making so much money. I remember
Mike being in my conference room with my sales team and telling them I didn’t know what I knew now, right? Obviously, and I remember telling my people say, Hey, man, we’re giving these these loans these 300,000 loan to someone making $40,000 a year. Fundamentally, it just doesn’t make sense. But I wasn’t intelligent enough. I wasn’t smart enough astute enough to know how to look for the opportunities. I didn’t know how to prepare. Like you said, when we started earlier.
The real estate investors are salivating right? They’re chomping at the bit right for the opportunities that are gonna come.
And you know, last year I was saying the same thing like this is not sustainable people offering me $60,000 over asking over the weekend, like put a property in the market and it’s like I’m like this shit doesn’t make sense. Like it’s like deja vu right?
It’s not gonna sustain long term. When I say one thing real quick why he says that you guys gonna support point I mean cut you off. The 90% of the markets never seen a market like this. Like the agents out there. 90% of them never been through this market. Because 90% of licensed real estate agents have never seen a shift. Alright, we’ve been on a
bull market for 12 1314 fucking years. Right so no one knows what to expect, including some of the top we have one of the top agents here in San Diego, I got a little Facebook’s back. You’re listening. I’m talking about you, bro.
The market crashed up. It’s like the top agent and Sandy Berg’s ever gonna crash been doing business seven, eight years? Do you guys all have egg on your face? For anyone who’s saying the market is crashing? Whenever it goes up like that it is unsustainable In today’s internet. Today’s it’s not a supply and demand issue? I don’t think so. They’re people want to buy houses, even though they’re they’re overpaying for them.
It’s an affordability issue. Right now that that said, that’s one of the reasons of why we decided so I told you told your audience earlier we flip houses, right? So we decided our strategy now is when we flip, right? Because you got to be careful when you’re flipping houses in a market like this.
What you’re doing, you got to really understand the data. And that is one of the things that you know, I learned from 2007 After buying my first, like 100 bought my first investment 100,000 I was $100,000 underwater, within two years. Pricing property was worth I bought it for 272 75. Same property was worth 179 Two years later, and you bought in oh seven. So you got caught your pants down? Yeah, man. Yes, sir. However, I just saw a comp of that property burned out. I had college kids and they burned it down. And that saved me. But I just saw a comp, I just bought a triplex not to combat a month ago. And the appraisal comes in here. He’s like, Hey, what are you gonna bring that in at? And he’s like, I don’t know yet. But here’s my comps. I just saw come for a property two doors down from there. Same like exact square footage of that property sold for 385. So my lesson, right? Is Real Estate is very forgiving long term. Right? If don’t wait to the good old saying don’t wait to buy real estate, buy real estate. Don’t wait. So even if I would have hung in there 14 years later, I would have I would have I would have turned around to give up. Yeah, yeah. So so so if you know, it’s about that mindset of having that long term thinking in terms of long term and not just right now, when you flip properties,
like some of the things that one of the strategies I do, if you don’t know what you’re doing, and a lot of the pretenders are already out, right? You got Redfin just left you got glass door, left
door,
or whatever their name or open door, whatever the name of that, like glass or that’s, that’s a really good way to
they all got out. And I remember talking to my team Mike, last year saying, you know, those guys can compete with us. And the reason I say that those guys can compete with us is because while they have virtually unlimited funds, right, they have all this money. We’re intimate in this market. Can you imagine those of us that are seasoned? Alright, think about this for a second. Those of us that are seasoned investors.
What is the toughest part of the rehab process is dealing with those freaking contractors, right? That is the toughest part, right? Those contractors will eat your freakin lunch. And can you imagine what contractors if they try that shit with us? And we’re local, we’re here we have boots on the ground. We have a team assembled everything. What are they doing when they get a call from Zillow? Hey, I’m Zillow in California and I want to rehab they’re killing those guys. Right there. They’re like, can you imagine what they’re doing to them so and no disrespect to them not not throwing shade on them I just on a one to one that really can’t compete right with us locally, because we’re local, right? They’re not they’re not in the business of making money. They’re in the business of spending money.
And they have to spend X amount of money in those hedge fund worlds, whereas the mom and pop or the individuals are actually in the business of making money. And when I never understood what all these pods is, like, why you guys like out and like the worst times to buy, like they came out in oh seven, two member they started buying and they went out right away. It’s like, Dude, you got to you create the fun, like in six months from now, then you buy all the properties, you know, by him whenever I was paying peak dollars for him, that’s just like, you would think that they would do like more research on like how real estate works for these high end funds, but none of them do because they’re just spending money. Like a drunken sailor. It doesn’t make sense to me like, like, I study the data man. And I’m like, you know, what, why would you like why are how are you guys justifying those decisions? Right? One of the decisions we made earlier this year when we saw this, all the correction and interest rates going up. Actually, late last year, I said we’re going to now shift to when we do flip a property we’re only going to do properties be low sub 250, right? ARV is up to 50. And that’s because in our market that’s considered affordable. And what I did was I went back and I studied 1981 when interest rates were 16% Right?
those kind of environment that we’re kind of projecting we’re going into. So I studied what investors were doing that and right. And I looked at, hey, people were still buying houses. I bought my first house in 2000. And it was I paid I had an FHA loan 9.75% interest rate was my rate, people are bitching about 7% interest rate right now, I’m like, stop it, stop, like,
you know, that’s not my first investment. And I was a mortgage broker, and oh, seven was 7.75. Right. And I had a 740 credit score, and I was a mortgage broker, I gave myself the absolute best deal.
And so we decided we’re going to only buy properties that are in the affordable space, because in 1981, the investors that were making money were were were selling properties that were affordable, then we feel based on the data income and things like that, demographically, we feel that 250 Regardless of where interest rates go, we give a good product, good clean product turnkey, we’re always going to have a product, we’re always going to have a buyer for that. So it’s about studying the market, right, Mike? Like really knowing your shit, like really just studying and understanding what it is that you mean, I can’t, I can just go buy a house and throw on some paint and granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, refinish the floors and make a bunch of money. That’s what that’s what the novice is doing. That’s how they lose money.
So let’s see here. Here’s you guys, if you listen in to what he’s saying, like real estate investors are a large part. I’ve been become investor friendly. First and foremost, like for all the realtors listening to this guy become investor friendly. Because that’s where the transactions are gonna go. Like, would you rather work with an investor that does like 10 houses a year would you rather work with one individual buyer is going to pitch about the GFCI outlets, and their dad is going to come to the inspection and give you a heart attack. So which wild you really want to go with it? And with that you’re going to have this is why I bring him on the show is because you’re going to have these conversations. I got some questions for you, Martin, because there’s a lot of agents and I want to get more into your strategy. But the question for you as would you like if you had like First off, I mean, investor friendly real estate agents, you really know what I’m talking about like that know their shit, like investor friendly people that are gonna go out there and source deals for you. People that did be like, Hey, yo, do you know like, the zoning in here is way under built. If you brought this to its highest and best use, you could probably do this with that. How many people are talking that way?
Dude, I host the local real estate investors meet up in my market. And I talk about this exact same exact same thing you just bought up. There is a handful, maybe three in my market that I can that can have that kind of conversation with me. And not it’s not the realtors fault. They’re taught to stay out of trouble. In real estate agents school, they taught they’re taught to be scared and this is they’ve taught that anything outside of a mortgage traditional 30 year mortgage or 15 year mortgages Oh, it’s illegal. And they and this is what I tell Realtors when they come is learn how to provide value to a guy like me because I’m the gift that keeps on giving right? Like I’m the gift that you know I’m the guy that’s gonna give you transaction after trends you want to partner with guys it doesn’t have to be me but a guy like me right? Fortunately for me my wife is a realtor so I’ve trained her on how to think as an investor
you got you guys are probably like going to like Valentine’s day talking about cash on cash return and cap rates
yeah
understood how to speak the language
and how to provide value to like just exactly like a ton of money with with guys like us that are we’re constantly buying right the you know we’re not going to pitch about little GFCI outlet we’re not gonna bitch about the roof and a bunch about this like we just wanted to do it makes sense we run the numbers it makes sense our students do and you sell it to us and you’re going to step in and then you’re going to sell it for us so it’s a double whammy right that’s that’s Mark playing that’s playing a small well most people don’t think that eight investors have a bad name like really agents Oh get the investors waiting someone’s getting ripped off that’s not true like guys got I’m gonna rewind what happened in oh seven people are gonna need investors to bail them out. I mean, that’s just what’s gonna happen. Investors yes, they make money but so do you.
Right? Are you are you a dick for fucking selling me a house at a 5% rate that you just put on the MLS and you just let the MLS sell? Let’s be honest, right? So you have to open your eyes to this stuff you guys and that’s my only goal to show today is to really get you thinking outside the box get you guys really looking at why not only do you want to become investor friendly in this upcoming market, but also work with different investors and honestly, like, Who here wants to sell real estate for the rest of their life? Nobody. Nobody can last the reason why 90% of the business hasn’t been through
shift like this is because no one last in this business for more than 10 years because it can be a grueling job. And most of the people that start out and do very well become investors themselves, you would think that makes common sense. It’s like sort of the natural progression of a real estate agent, learn the market, go in there, and then eventually become the investor become your own best client at the end of the day. So let’s get into some of these strategies. Now just wanted to pick that up, because I want to point you guys in the right direction to head during this recession. Because just do it, trust me.
Where I wouldn’t had as just being a regular residential agent anymore, I just would stay away from a adept it’s time. So let’s get into this, you’re gonna go into the buy and hold, which is attractive. A lot of investors like to make a quick buck. It’s harder to find a buy and hold. Let’s get into that. strategy. First. Buy and hold is different by the bind flip. Guys, I’m sure you guys understand that. But what do you look for in a buy and hold? Like, I just want to play real estate agent and you play investor? That’s what you are. And I paid you What do I look for? What kind of properties are you to buy? What’s the strategy in this? So when I’m looking for buy and hold, I’m looking for bigger plays. But if you know, I don’t know who your audience is, let’s just I just bought a triplex. Let’s just Let’s just Let’s just look at that right, I just bought a triplex a couple blocks from here. So that’s the most recent one I bought less than a month ago. And when I looked at that, I look at a couple things, right? It’s a little you run the numbers differently, right? I’m looking at, I’m looking at Cap rates, I’m looking at income, I’m looking at value, add opportunity. So So those of you that don’t know capitalization, what capitalization rate is capitalization rate is my rate of return on my on what that’s the rate that properties are trading at,
in a particular market, right. That’s how you could calculate the value. So I look at a What’s the rent? Was it current rent, and that particular asset? And then I look at what can I get this rent to? And what do I have to do to the place to get it to that rent? So for instance, if I have four let’s just say make even even if even numbers if I’m getting $36,000 a year for let’s call it $40,000, a year from that triplex currently
performing so it’s underperforming by like 15 grand a year, right? 15 grand a year, so I can get it to 15 to 55,000 hours a year. How much money do I have to put into the property? To get it to give me that? And then what’s my valuation once I increase it to that income? So it’s a it’s a little bit different? Beast, right? I’m running different animals, and I’m running different different numbers. And then can I exit on a refi?
too, to burn it. And maybe the people know that you’re people familiar with the buy, renovate,
rent, refinance, and repeat. If I can borrow it, then what’s my, what’s my, what’s my tenants? And
what can I refinance it out, and while they’re still cashflow, so there’s a lot of different moving parts. And I’m looking at, for instance, this particular one, Mike, we it was a three units or three unit. We have crappy tenants in there, places falling apart, it’s way underperforming, I mean, the rents, I can get another $600 in rents, what do I have to put into it, though I have to put in there’s a hole in the roof like roofs getting done tomorrow, there’s a hole in the roof is just falling apart. I have no idea how people will live like that. But my value add my upside in this particular and agents pay attention if you’re predominantly listeners or agents. My value add was that there is a there’s a meter in the meter base electrical meter base, there’s a fourth meter in the basement. It’s a walkout basement. And that was grandfathered in and there was an apartment there at one time there’s a kitchen and already a bathroom in there. It’s full of junk right now. But that right there turns changes that whole property, I can go in there now. But a new meter, put it rewired, put new, redo the bathroom, redo the kitchen, turn it into a brand new place, right, and I go from buying that place, I’m gonna wind up putting about 60 grand in rehab into that property. Bought that place at 219. These let’s call it 201 96. Let’s just call it 200 200. I’m going to put 60 in and I’m going to have 260 The after we call it ARV after repair value the new valuation because I’m fourth appreciating it the new valuation of the property projected after I’m done it’s $475,000. So what can I refi it out right what what can i What can I get with that right? How much equity do I have? I just created a ton of equity for myself. This particular and I have a cash flowing asset and the asset will be paid by the by the debt is paid by the residents. And I keep the assets and I still cashflow it’s a win win win win situation. You got to know how to buy. I don’t kind of give you the long, long view. But that’s the
Are the Fit kind of the 50,000 foot view of all the moving parts? When when I’m looking at buying multifamily now something that’s small, I’m gonna look at it. That simple, right? Something bigger, we purchase a 57 unit earlier this year. And that one similar strategy Hey, what was the wrench wrench for 700 we pushed him all the way to $1,100 a month, we sealed the driveway, we dropped about 200,000 The property did a bunch of a bunch of things to add value to the place. And we forced appreciate it. The asset at that scale. Now we force depreciated by about $2 million in less than a year. That’s a bigger scale. It’s a little bit more sophisticated, but it’s same same, same product Minister same process. And if agents just learned how to like if they just got educated, listen to guys like you and learn how to do things like this man, like, like, learn how to run these numbers and bring deals like this to guys like myself. Holy smokes man, like, sky’s the limit for you. Your life will be so much easier. I do have a question for you, Mike, what do you rate your projections? What are you seeing?
2023 is going to look like? I think it’s going to change on where you’re at geographically. I think the blue states are gonna get their ass kicked. Like they already are. I’m in San Diego. They’re getting crushed.
I think it’s an affordability issue. So the high peak markets, the Phoenix, Las Vegas, all of California.
The Midwest markets seem pretty safe for the time being. But yeah, it’s because I don’t everyone, the typical real estate agents, oh, supply demand, there’s demand. And they’re just reading these talking points from National Association of Realtors. Right. But in reality, no one’s considering gas prices, no one’s considered inflation. And no one’s talking about the stuff that takes the average Joe out of the market, and more concerned about what’s going to happen tomorrow for their kids. And that’s the reality of it. The average nope, people don’t have savings. You guys like people act like there’s a bunch of people have savings. No, the vast majority of people out there have are living paycheck to paycheck. And when everything goes up two or $300 up a month, like I’m sorry, you no longer think about buying that house, you think about your future kids tomorrow. So I don’t think it’s an a supply and demand issue. I think it’s all affordability. And I personally think that our government is trying to crash the real estate market. That is many evidence of that they’re trying to why they’re doing it, we won’t go into conspiracy theories. But point being is that it’s happening. Right. So now with that, I think that as the recession hits, and the more and more stuff they do to crush the market here, there’s gonna be people that are in distressed, and if I’m focusing on anything gets motivated sellers, and that’s why we built owner advocate.com. So if you guys wanna check that out, go and check that out. I’m going all after motivated sellers. But I believe everyone needs to be a problem solver. Because when I do know from the last crash, if you guys been listened to show I mentioned a couple times, but we are Big Short Sale 25 to 35, close short sales a month, I was buying a percent of those and flipping them. But I didn’t care about the transaction, what I focused on was just helping people. We did that for about two years in a row, largest short sale team in the country, doing the exact same stuff that I believe is about to happen. It’s not going to be as bad as it was in oh seven. I don’t think they’ll I think they’ll Don’t ever let those foreclosures go to public. I think they’ll transact and behind closed doors to the funds, and all the other things so that the public perception doesn’t crash like it did last time. But there’s going to be a million opportunities for the mom and pops because the eye buyers are now exiting. So there’s our big cash buyer competition. And where you’re at a smart like focusing on the lower dollar, the affordability within your issue is probably where I would play too, because no one knows what’s going to happen tomorrow. So if you’re rehabbing, I wouldn’t go for the luxury rehabs right now, I wouldn’t even touch them. I don’t even think about them. I would do exactly what you just said. You want to be right. And the affordability areas. It’s not supply and demand affordability. That’s your issue. And nobody wants to get caught with their pants down. Because I could tell you I know I tell you so many people who have like I said, you guys, we both were both talking here. We both were around and oh seven doing the same stuff. And you just have to be a little bit careful. Now on the flip side of that, get excited because I’m not trying to paint doom and gloom. I think you’ll have more opportunities. I think it’d be tonic opportunities right here in San Diego because I think it’s going to crash you here. More so than like Florida.
The Texas is the Florida’s all the inbound states are still inbound. We have clients all over the country, and they’re not as effective as much. But the Midwest states I think are going to be safe. But the high end luxury is what I’m seeing struggle right now. The higher end of your markets.
Yeah, I’ll share this with you. I went to a conference and I’m not gonna mention the conference name. It was in February, in Colorado, because I don’t want to I don’t want to put them in bad light. But it was this very same day, Mike that that Ukraine got invaded by Russia. And so I just flew into Colorado.
And the news hit that morning and I was like, Okay, this is great. I mean, the biggest commercial real estate investors conference in our, in our industry, right, one of the biggest. So we’re gonna talk about this stuff, you know, gas is starting to soar rightly, all these things and we’re gonna talk about and I was so disappointed man.
To your point of
what you said earlier how people are getting affected I was so disappointed that you had some really smart people there were people from Marcus Miller champ really, really intelligent people. And they were saying that interest rates going up at that time probably interest rates had just started going up, interest rates going up, gas prices going up and electricity going up to the level that it is right now. 30 40% increase in some some places in electrical and electrical that it was not going to affect multifamily apartment buildings. And I was so disappointed dude, I was so disappointed. I was like, how could you insult my intelligence? How could you insult my intelligence I flew all the way out here from from Pennsylvania to Colorado and you insult my intelligence and say that this war is not going to have an impact that interest rates is not going to have an impact in that we’re just going to keep riding this gravy train. It’s an absolute insult you understand what I’m saying?
when gas prices go up and your average working class person gas prices are going up again have you looked at the gas pump they’re going up because OPEC cuts production? Oh the elections over of course they’re gonna Yeah. Right. Exactly right. So so so when when that occurs, right gas prices goes up and now regular Mom and Pop working class America has to spend another two or $300 a month Do you not think is going to impact my read collections? Do you not think is going to an electrical now you got to spend another 20 another 20 30% Extra in to heat up your apartment? Do you not think that’s going to have an impact like you are foolish? If you expect me to believe that and we as Americans as individuals we have to be able to look at this stuff we got to be listened to people and discern and make our own decisions as to what makes sense and what doesn’t make sense. I wouldn’t I would go out and say that especially as a commercial because the same thing happened oh seven I was one of them. Markets number one that’s what I got caught with my pants down Marcus I forgot about always appreciate the market doesn’t go down. It was just my my inexperience you know, in the market. Like what you said earlier? Yeah, if you stick it in the long run, you’re always gonna win. But there will go in and out and out. Like it’s like we’ve been sampling the crypto right now. It’s getting its ass kicked.
But you have to just be ready to just no one knows the answer. But when things are going good no one ever wants to talk about what the negativity of it because the same thing happened. Same thing in the residential side. I was like, oh, Martin’s gonna go you should buy right now. And I’m always like, Dude, I wouldn’t freakin buy right now, this guy just paid off my old neighborhood, there was a house listed for three mil and it sold it for $1 million over list price. $1 million over list price. Insane. Like it’s crazy, like, and then you would think that the people buying those houses aren’t like you would think they’re intelligent, and they think about this stuff. But they’re just most times that people are buying in that price point they have so much money, they don’t really give a shit like an extra 500 $250,000 isn’t going to do much. But you’re right where it’s gonna hit his middle America. And it’s gonna hit that middle America right when the spot that you’re playing. So you’re gonna hit distressed assets, plus, you’re gonna be able to liquidate them and exit out of them.
You know, what was the most interesting thing last year, when when we were flipping last year, I had quote unquote, investors. First of all, most of us investors, we don’t buy real investors. And if this is you, I’m gonna apologize for you up front if you’re an investor. Real investor knows how to find off market deals, get off market deals. You’ve mentioned it multiple times.
When I had the funniest thing to me was when I had I sold multiple properties last year 40 50,000 over asking price Mike to quote unquote, Airbnb investors. And I’m like, holy shit how I’ll be buying this property. You’re gonna be buying that back in about six months. Back in a couple years, right? Because I was like, I look at that I’m saying how are you making these know how you penciling these numbers? I caught what investor buys first of all, you’re not an investor. If you’re paying 40 $50,000 over asking on the retail marketing, you’re competing with retail buyers. Like like like
you love and you competing with retail buyers. You’re not a real investor. Right because a real investor is not competing with retail buyers. We’re not buying to live retail buyers have the luxury of overpaying and falling in love with properties. We don’t fall in love with properties.
It is we running the numbers. The numbers gotta make sense if the numbers make sense we do with you. Yeah. Sherry non-emotional either works or doesn’t. Like, that’s why I like it.
It works or it doesn’t. And that’s a problem with a lot of real estate guys, a lot of real estate agents. We investors have a bad rep amongst the real estate agent community at times that all but at times, oh because they look we lowball Well, that’s how we make our money understand that we have to buy at a certain price point in order to be profitable. If we pay what mom and pops pay when they buy like a regular tradition. We can’t be profitable. We can’t We can’t make a profit. Yep, make sense? What? Any final words here like what? You know, where do you think we’re gonna go? You think you’re gonna do more holes here? You’re gonna do more flips when you think the markets gonna head? Back to you? Yeah, well, we’re, I think that the market is headed for a correction. But I got to tell you, Mike, I got it wrong. And 2020 I got it got it wrong, right. 2020 I was preparing I’m salivating when when COVID hit. I was like, Yeah, this is it like this is it? I did, we’re gonna I got it wrong and went the other way. I’m looking at the data, or the fear mongering has already been done. As you know, it’s already all over the media, that rental housing market and this housing market that? Well, I gotta tell you, man, I just looked at the numbers. I spent a couple of hours this week looking at the numbers in my market, quarter over quarter. And men were steady, like, we are still steady. We are still like, like, I’m like, okay, yeah, interest rates are going up. People still buying. I’m looking, I’m comparing quarter over quarter like what’s happening, comparing it to last year. And it’s like, it’s steady. So my advice is if you’re going to be playing and you’re going to be investing is don’t be listening just to the media and word even. Don’t even don’t even listen to me, right? Like, if I’m telling you something, go do your own due diligence and research it and do your own due diligence. Pay attention to what’s happening in your market prepare. Like I was saying, I got it wrong in 2020 I thought that we were going to the market was gonna blow up and I was gonna buy a ton of shit. And it was gonna be, you know, an amazing time. It didn’t it went the other way market just demand went up, prices went up. Remember that?
I could be wrong man. I, I looked at I’m looking at the data. And wow, the the interest rates are going up. And in some markets prices prices are coming down for sure we are seeing prices, but a crash. I don’t know. You know, what I what we’re doing is we’re staying couple things. We’re staying disciplined with our numbers. We’re buying, right? And we’re planning for a worst case and we’re getting ready for if that crash does come, where we’re going to continue to buy, what we are doing is we are staying in the game. We’re not going to stop playing. We’re paying attention. We’re watching the data. We’re being disciplined, and we’re not deviating and we’re not making any crazy bets right now in this market, because we don’t know where the market is going. Overall, we’re staying disciplined, and we’re studying the market. We’re watching the data closely. And we’re watching where things go. We’re watching what the feds are doing. Like, if you’re in this business, you need to be paying attention to what the feds are doing. You need to be paying attention to what they’re doing. I do you believe that there will be opportunity in the multifamily space. Because
you’re here. Here’s my thought, right? There’s guys that had that bought larger multifamily bridge, in the garden bridge loan, were 90% LTV, and their margins were thin. So because those guys that were betting that the market is never going to stop and rinse, we’re never going to stop going down and all that shit, right? Those guys that had thin margins, and their value add was 50 or 75 or 100 bucks. And now they’re in this position where the banks the capital markets are saying wait a minute, rates are going up, we don’t want to now they can’t cash flow, and they can’t make those numbers pencil out at these ratios, though things are gonna go going to be on sale next year, just just because of interest rates. So that just makes logical sense for me, I yeah, man that that’s an error of the get those people with those bridge loans that can’t refi into long term, they’re gonna be in trouble. If their margins were thin, and they were betting that it was going to rents were going to continue to go the way they’re in trouble. Those guys are in trouble. They’re going to have to fire yourself. So I’m gonna be looking for those and I’m going to be for those larger more times. But as for the single family, think about it, brother is not like when you and I were back in oh seven, right? Where it was those two year arms right? 9.75 gonna reset in two or three or four years. We don’t have that. Now, we have an inventory issue because people are not selling they have those two 3% interest rates. They’re looking at this or saying we can weather this where am I going with it? Seven 600% Right, where am I going? Right? So so it’s just a weird time. It’s very different. And I’m just we’re just preparing my advices prepare, getting cash every position but be disciplined
Be disciplined with the numbers and pay attention to where the opportunities are, where the puck is going, right? where the opportunities are good in either way, like it’s around how you buy, right? It’s on how you sell or when you say it’s on how you buy, you got to buy, right, and you’re good no matter what it is.
And you guys just got to be careful. But I mean, just by listening to the show, you guys, can you see how you could reposition your brand and niche down in these times when the residential market slows down a little bit, you niche down, you find a niche. And that’s what you lead gen. And you do one thing really well, real estate investors never have a listing issue. And I don’t understand why agents ever do. And it’s because they know where to put their solution and who to put in front of us is why I’m saying become a problem solver, guys, people are gonna need it. And there’s gonna be a lot of opportunity out there. The only thing I would say
the one number and I agree with everything, the one thing I’m worried about, what I would put is that anyone who bought from 2022, first quarter to 12 months prior, and I’m talking specifically about the FHA as the VA loans and the 100% of your financing, like all those people, if the market does shift, like in California, we’ve already shifted 5.3%. So the cost of sale is 8%. In 5.3%, if you only put down 2%. Those people are already underwater. Yeah, that is that’s the that’s the one that’s the thing, I can’t get my head around. Because
once people see that they’re underwater like Phogat. Done SWAK. That’s what happened. That was the snowball effect that took place last time and I can’t get my head around that. So yeah, the affordability but people want to buy people are out there that they need to buy. But they’re like worried about the affordability aspect of it. But there will be a lot of opportunity. Regardless of how you look at it. Go ahead where you say, there definitely will be opportunities. My the other side to that though, Mike is yes, there’s already people under water agreed agreed with you, we’ve seen a 7% drop in value here. We peaked here in we peaked here in April and April of this year here in the Poconos. And we’ve seen a 7% drop April to now which is a significant amount of time, and that’s a lot. That’s a big significant drop. However, the the other side to that is you have those people right to have those fHh vas, they still have those two 3% interest rates.
So while they’re on paper, on their water, on paper, they’re on the water, what’s their payments? And remember, what do people buy? You know, and this why they buy payment, they buy payments, so Hey, am I going to walk away because on paper, it says I’m 50,000 on water. And if I move my payment, my expenses for my family is gonna go up. So it’s again, it’s a tricky time. Like I’ve thrown that shit around in my head. Yeah. Tricky time. When when people pencil the numbers out, okay, do I walk away? My payment is 1500 for this 350,000 Not alone? If I go someplace else, what can I get for 1500? Right? What kind of Prop work? Can I rent for 1500? Why would I get and people have to do that math people will do that math. Some people will smart people will do that math.
Right. And it’s like, and like I said earlier, if you buy real estate and wait over the long haul, if this is you and you’re listening, remember what I said I bought mine in oh seven for 2000 for 275. And oh nine that was 100,000 it was worth 179 and 2022 Property two doors down from there exact same property a duplex sold for 385. So if you hang in there over time, over time,
real estate is very forgiving over the long haul. If you can think the long term can weather the storm maybe
the data has shown me that and my message to your listeners if you’re listening and you’re that homeowner is hang in there and think of the long haul, right because you’re gonna just make it worse for your neighbor for the economy for everyone. So if you couldn’t hang in there, hang in there. If you’re distressed now and you have to sell you have to sell because you lost your job and you have no choice that’s a different that’s a totally different story different conversations and you know guys like Mike and myself will buy them
for short sale, right?
Well, you hang in there very interesting dude great conversation. Why don’t you go ahead and give our listeners your closing thoughts where can they find you? Where can they learn more about your business some of your trainings and whatnot. Yeah, so so you guys can find me on check out my podcast Latinos and real estate investing podcast on Instagram. As the lead strategists look me up the lead strategist. I have a ton of stuff or you can check out my YouTube as well. I have a lot of content on YouTube. Lead strategist where I put a lot of my rehabs and a lot of a lot of cool stuff on there live videos of evicting tenants and things like that I show I like to share with people the real the real stuff, a lot of a lot of
guys out here like to show the fluff. I like to show the real, real deal.
Open up
I have a video like that with the with the actual constable putting this lady out. And it’s interesting because people on the insert in the Internet are like, Oh, you’re such an asshole. You’re such this. What people don’t know is they don’t know the full story right? They know the full story like, Hey, I gave this lady two months free rent, I let her like, this is it like, you know, like people don’t know the full context and the internet is kind of brutal like that. So anyways, go check it out. I have a bunch of stuff like that out there where we put it out real life stories. It’s not a pretty business. It’s a profitable business but ultimates a problem solving business, right? Someone you don’t make really good at solving problems, someone’s problems. That’s all real estate is, Folks, we appreciate you listening to other episode the real estate marketing podcast if you like what you heard today, once you go check out one of our products is called owner advocate agent.com. If you need to sharpen in your listing strategy and get more investor friendly, that’s where you do that. And if you need seller leads, we have all kinds of a for you. So go ahead and look at that. Check that out and keep listening to our show. You can reach us at real estate marketing do.com referral suite.com or the owner advocate.com. Appreciate you and have a good week and I’ll see you guys next week. Bye. Thank you for watching another episode of the real estate marketing dude podcast. If you need help with video or finding out what your brand is, visit our website at WWW dot real estate marketing dude.com We make branding and video content creation simple and do everything for you. So if you have any additional questions, visit the site, download the training, and then schedule time to speak with a dude and get you rolling in your local marketplace. Thanks for watching another episode of the podcast. We’ll see you next time.
Transcribed by https://otter.ai